Rupert Wieloch

Two weeks ago, I suggested that President Trump had done a deal with President Putin that effectively traded Ukraine for Venezuela and allowed each other to militarily subsume two of the largest sovereign states on the planet. Yesterday, this idea was realised as the World witnessed a generation defining event when America struck at strategic targets inside Venezuela and captured President Maduro (for the record the size of Venezuela is 912,050 square kilometres – it is more than twice the size of Iraq).

Newscasters and commentators have struggled to put this into context. Channel 4 tried to liken it to the Millennium interventions into Afghanistan, Iraq (and Libya), with their associated troubles. This was rightly swatted away because a) those expeditions were in response to the most heinous crime in human history (9/11) and b) they occurred in countries with deep sectarian and/or historical schisms.

Others have suggested that Putin and Trump are attempting to take us back to the Cold War era, when the World was effectively managed by the two Superpowers. However, this model does not work for me partly because the World is more disordered now than after WWII and partly because the World’s demographics and wealth have shifted over the past 50 years with China, India and Arabia tilting the balance.

It is well-known that Putin thought little of the Soviet system and harks back further to Tsarist era, when Russia built its Empire by leaning on its neighbours walls until they crumbled. We also know that President Trump admires Putin’s methodology. So the question is: will this be another Iraq or Vietnam with puppet-regimes dogged by military insurgency, or will it be more like the Philippines, when President Aguinaldo was captured by American forces on 23 March 1901 and the country was later governed as a US Territory? Only time will tell.

My idea of a gap year is when school leavers fill the time between school and university (usually 14 months) with “no-commitment” growing-up activities, such as travel, adventure, art, sport and short-term, money-earning jobs. Of course, it can also mean post university and career gaps, but by then people are more fixed in their minds in terms of values and attitude.

The British Military Gap Year Scheme which was announced yesterday is not quite like this. For a start, it requires a two-year commitment and entails a three month basic military training course. All it seems to be doing, is reducing the normal three-year commitment to two. The under-25s who enrol in this scheme will not deploy on active operations, which seems strange to me because these are the best bits – barrack life can be pretty dull and monotonous.

I completely support the sentiments of encouraging families to consider the military as worthwhile careers and the so-called “whole-of-society” approach to defence and deterrence, but this announcement provides no detail about what skills will be offered and unfortunately will not fill the real Armed Forces Gap.

Recruit Training 25 Years Ago

I cannot believe the Libya is still using Colonel Gaddafi’s private jet aircraft for their military chiefs’ flights. In 2012, I was flown from Mitiga Air Base to El Adem in one of Gaddafi’s Falcon 50 jets. Even to my layman’s eyes it was clear that maintenance schedules were not being completed because the tradesmen had sold their tools during the civil war to buy food for their families. The fleet of MiGs, Sukhois and Falcons needed to be replaced and the infrastructure renovated. The Chief of the Libyan Air Force invited me to bring out British contractors to bid for the work, which I managed to do before the end of my tour.

The tragic crash of the Libyan Falcon 50 that caused the death of their Army Chief, General Haddad and other military officials in Turkey has put this aircraft in the spotlight again. Between the three possible causes of a terrorist attack, pilot error or bad-maintenance, my guess is the third. Given the amount of oil and gas money in Libya it seems extraordinary that the government has not upgraded their VIP aircraft since the overthrow of Gadhaffi.

Maintenance Hangar At The Libyan Airbase in El Adem

Following the tragic death of Corporal George Hooley last week, the Media has highlighted the case of an ex-British soldier captured on the front line soon after joining the Ukrainian Foreign Legion last year. The UK’s Foreign Office statement demanding that Russia “stop using prisoners of war for political and propaganda purposes” reminds me that not much has changed since 1920, when the British soldiers in my book, Churchill’s Abandoned Prisoners, were deceived by Bolshevik Commissars and incarcerated in political prisons in Moscow.

However, this was not the main event this week. The news that the EU is providing more financial support for Ukraine is very welcome, but the Russian President’s end-of-year address catches the eye as the centrepiece. The fact that Putin no longer portrays the USA as his biggest threat even though the US Commander-in-Chief is now attacking Russia’s most important trading and military ally in Latin America makes me think something dramatic has changed this year. Have Putin and Trump agreed an undeclared deal behind the scenes – Ukraine for Venezuela?

My first thoughts this week are for the family of the brave paratrooper, who became the first confirmed death of a serving member of the British armed forces in Ukraine.

Corporal Hooley’s sad demise raises many questions about the undeclared use of troops on military operations. In 2011, I was one of many such soldiers who were deployed in a war zone with limited political authority. We were given a military mission, but knew that our activities would be denied officially, if we were caught.

I can understand why the British government does not wish to reveal the full extent of the British military mission in Ukraine. Ever since Parliament voted not to intervene in Syria when Assad used chemical weapons against his own people, there has been a reluctance to engage in high-end fighting. However, if the head of NATO is correct about Russia’s capability and plans to launch further attacks against European countries, then we really must shake people out of their complacency and educate them about casualties in war.

What also needs to change is PJHQ’s medallic recognition for our soldiers in Ukraine. These courageous men and women should be awarded the General Service Medal 2008, rather than the less prestigious Tier 4, Wider Service Medal, which is what they receive now.

Readiness has been in the news again this week, with Putin stating on Tuesday that “Russia did not want to fight Europe, but was “ready” for war if necessary”. This news played a part in the German government’s vote on Friday to reintroduce military conscription, albeit on a voluntary basis.

Together with France, which announced similar plans last month, Germany will join the NATO Flank countries (Scandinavia, Greece and Turkey) and Baltic Three (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) to visibly increase their readiness for war with Russia. But what about Britain?

When I toured the United Kingdom, speaking to large audiences in towns and cities 25 years ago, I was often asked about the reintroduction of national service. At that time, the British Army did not wish to waste precious resources on solving society’s perceived problem of a lack of self discipline among young people. We had more than enough volunteers to sustain the “Best Small Army in the World” at over 100,000 professional soldiers.

Today we face a different challenge. Young people are accused of self-entitlement and the British Army is no longer capable of deploying an armoured division at short notice to fight high-intensity armoured warfare, as we did in 2003. Realising this situation, I have changed my tune and I am now fully behind the movement to reintroduce National Service for all school leavers. It doesn’t have to be military, but it does have to be a contribution to society and a commitment to the community – perhaps medical or mucking-out. As in World War II, certain employments should be classed as reserved occupations e.g. mining, manufacturing and munitions. The aim should be clear: to be ready to fulfil Article 5 commitments to our Allies, if Russia invades a NATO nation.

Para Musicians – Courtesy of MoD

The Ajax programme dates to when I was Head of Reliability in the Ministry of Defence in 2008, after FRES was cancelled by the Chief of the General Staff. Unfortunately, the MoD in its wisdom closed the Reliability Group after I deployed to Baghdad and as a result there was insufficient technical oversight of the programme in the competition phase, before contracts were signed in 2014.

To my mind, the reliability problems and technical issues that have delayed the introduction of this vital equipment can be put down to the indiscriminate culling of system design engineers at Abbey Wood in the shadow of the merger of the old Defence Procurement Agency and the Defence Logistics Organisation. Under a culture of “Change” and “Efficiencies”, the delivery of aircraft, ships and tanks suffered subsequently you cannot ask Defence Contractors to mark their own homework!

If the MoD had spent more on technical oversight in the early stage of the programme and less on McKinsey change management fees, we would not have wasted so much money further down the line. More importantly, Ajax would now be integrated into British Armoured Brigade Combat Teams and we would be closer to being able to fulfil our commitments to NATO Allies.

When Will We Have Full Operating Capability?

When I heard last week that the distinguished American Envoy in Kyiv, Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, intends to leave his post, I was very worried about what was about to follow. It is now clear that he was being side-lined by Trump’s advisors in Washington, who remain intent on pulling the rug from the US commitment to Ukraine (as happened to Afghanistan in February 2020, during his first term in office).

It is also pretty obvious that the good General does not agree with the 28-point plan that has been foisted on President Zelensky, but is helping him to manage the difficult situation that has arisen through Trump’s appeasement of Putin. The demands on Zelensky to concede a large chunk of Ukraine and reduce the armed forces by one third look like ham-fisted bullying, but the big question is whether the European Union negotiators in Geneva will be able to rebalance the equation and allow Ukraine to achieve a dignified peace.

In the meantime, fighting on the front line and drone-bombing will continue unabated.

The situation reminds me of a similar moment in history when the British government debated whether to make peace with Bolshevik Russia in November 1920. Winston Churchill, who was the War Secretary at the time, voted to continue military assistance to the Free Russians, but the Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, voted to re-open trade with Moscow and to end British support to the beleaguered White Russians in Ukraine. The peace deal sealed the fate of millions of Ukrainians, who were later killed by Stalin in his Holodomor.

Much of the training for our soldiers is about helping them to see through the “Fog of War”. This term was developed in the 19th century to describe the uncertainty on the battlefield i.e. having to make decisions with sub-optimal information. For example, late on the 18th June 1815 at Waterloo, the clouds of smoke from artillery and the folds in the ground prevented the generals on both sides from seeing who was winning the hand-to-hand combat.

In the 21st century, media and politicians cannot deal with uncertainty because it makes them look unprofessional. In the case of military operations, they pretend that surveillance systems, Air Power and precision weapons are the answer and gloss over the real issue, which is high-intensity training. It is possible to see through the fog of war, if you spend hours and hours on exercise (my rule of thumb was to spend one third of a year manouvering in the field in order to reach a standard where you can intuitively make the right decisions).

In Ukraine, last week, thick fog enabled Russian troops to move further into the key strategic city of Pokrovsk. For several days, the West’s surveillance drones were ineffective because visibility was so poor. This allowed Russian infiltration operations to succeed because we have become too dependent on technology and avoided putting boots on the ground. If we wish to prevent Putin from winning this war, we will need to change our strategy soon.

19th Century Fog of War

The structure of Remembrance this year has had three distinct parts to it. The Westminster Field of Remembrance, which was opened by Her Majesty the Queen. The second weekend in November events, which include the Royal Albert Hall Festival, the Cenotaph Parade in Whitehall and Church Services throughout the country. And finally, today’s Armistice Memorial Service at the National Arboretum, which was attended by the Princess of Wales.

This three-legged-stool, which has developed over time in response to the needs of those who defended the Free World and their descendants, is part of Deep British Culture. Unfortunately, this is under threat from those who wish to “reinvent” the commemoration because they do not agree with concepts of loyalty and duty to one’s country. Their arguments stem from a naïve ideology that oversimplifies the complexities and realities of war. I am all for inclusion, especially to those who feel disenfranchised, but we should not dilute the military involvement and nor should we allow the ignorant to denigrate our way of life.